Lugia
Estimated value · BGS 8.5 · 1st Edition · updated Oct 19
$5,458
- Recent sales: middle of the last 3: $6,128, Oct 4 to Oct 11
- Evidence: moderate · 30 sales in 180 days · last Oct 11
- Next-sale range: $4,621 to $7,377
Estimate, recent sales and range: adjusted to typical eBay auction prices.
How we got this
A full estimate: 15 sales we counted in the last 90 days, weighted toward the most recent.
Recent sales: the middle (median) of the last 3 sales we counted (Oct 4 to Oct 11), each adjusted to typical eBay auction prices: Buy It Now and auction-house prices are moved by the gap we measure between venues in this era. The sales list shows the prices paid.
Checked on 54,208 estimate-to-next-sale pairs for grades with 9 or more sales in 90 days, Wizards era, from Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026: half the next sales landed within 11 percent of the estimate at the time (as of Oct 18). A record of past estimates, not a guarantee for this card.
Estimates with moderate evidence had a median error of 11 percent on 57,634 past cases (Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026).
Sales in the last 90 days ran from $3,960 (Sep 13) to $6,999 (Oct 2) (15 sales, prices paid).
Evidence: strong means at least 4.5 effective recent sales (older and clustered sales count for less) with a spread under 0.15; moderate, at least 2.8 with a spread under 0.30; limited, anything less. The basis (sales of this grade, or estimated from similar cards) is stated separately.
An estimate from completed sales. Not an offer or an appraisal.
Unconfirmed rise
5 sales since Oct 2 sold above earlier sales. Prices may be rising, but this is not confirmed yet.
- Last 5 sales vs 47 before: +30%
- Vs our estimate: +12%
- Estimate since the move began: 0%
Of 1,448 past signals like this, 65 percent were confirmed or settled within 30 days. A record, not a forecast.
How we got this
The middle of the last 5 sales against the middle of the 47 before them (Oct vs Oct 2025 to Sep 2026), adjusted to typical eBay auction prices.
Our estimate $5,458 from 17 sales through Oct 11.
The estimate was $5,458 on Oct 11 and is $5,458 now.
Signals counted for grades with 9 or more sales in 90 days, Jan 1, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026.
Sales, last 90 days · 15
Each dot is a sale; tap one for details. Prices are adjusted to typical eBay auction prices. The latest sale is ringed.
About this chart
Buy It Now and auction-house prices are moved by the gap we measure between venues in this era, so every dot is comparable with an eBay auction. Tap a dot to see the price paid.
Momentum: Unconfirmed rise
Detected Oct 11. Confirmed after 3 separate days of sales that hold the new level; 1 so far.
What ends it: later sales falling back, or our estimate catching up (shown as Settled). It also ends after 32 days without a sale at the new level.
Lugia · BGS 8.5 · 1st Edition · 1 year
Oct 19, 2026 · estimate $5,458 · that week: no sales
On eBay now
Listings from eBay · updated 1 hour agoNo copies listed on eBay right now.
Prices and stock as eBay lists them. eBay is not part of this site.
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Compared with the 15 sales of the last 90 days and the estimate.
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Grades · 1st Edition
Grades 7 to 7.5 share one estimate. Their recent sales overlap, so we do not rank them apart.
Grades 6 to 6.5 share one estimate. Their recent sales overlap, so we do not rank them apart.
Grades 4 to 5 share one estimate so a lower grade never shows above a higher one.
Our estimate for each grade, with the change over 30 days and how much evidence backs it. Grades with few recent sales show the range of what sold instead.
How we got this
A grade's estimate needs 5 or more sales we counted in 90 days; otherwise the panel shows the lowest to highest sale of the last year. When neighbouring grades' sales overlap, or a lower grade's figure would sit above a higher grade's, they share one precision-weighted estimate (each figure weighted by how tight its range is). The 30-day change compares with the last settled estimate and shows only with strong or moderate evidence.
Printings · BGS 8.5
Sales, last 90 days, BGS 8.5 · 1st Edition
Prices as paid. Tap a sale to see it adjusted to typical eBay auction prices.
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Population
No population report for this printing yet.
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