We compare each sale with our estimate from the day before it sold. Pick a group to see how close we came.
Wizards era · Grade 10, every grader · eBay Buy It Now
Only 0 sales in this group. We show figures for groups of 50 sales or more.
Each pair is one sale we counted and our estimate for that card, grade and printing as it stood the day before the sale, moved into the sale's venue terms (Buy It Now and auction-house prices carry the venue gap measured for the era). The miss is |ln(estimate / price)|, shown as exp(x) - 1: the Stage 0 symmetric error, so a sale at half or at double the estimate counts the same. "Half landed within" is the median miss; "80% within" is its 80th percentile. Groups with fewer than 50 pairs show no figures.
Two copies of the same card and grade sold within 7 days of each other typically differ by about 7.5 percent, so no estimate can be expected to land much closer than that to a single sale. Sales in 90 days counts the sales we counted of that grade in the 90 days before the sale. Evidence is the word shown with the estimate at the time; from similar cards means the modeled estimate.